At the end of my latest book:
"The Secret to GE's Success", I provided my perspectives and insights about Immelt and his ability to meet the "high expectations" that he has set for the company. I promised my readers that I would continue to objectively evaluate Immelt and his teams performance. I just finished reading the extensive, Sales oriented 9 page, "letter to investors" in the 2007 annual report and would like to use this letter to see what has changed and how it compares with the key points I make in my book.
"Impressive Results but Poor Stock Performance" was my closing comments in the book. This continues to be a great frustration for Immelt and his team. Jeff strongly believes that GE is still a BEST BUY and is UNAPPRECIATED... it clear that he is very frustrated. In fact, in recent days it was reported that he lost over $7 million bonus because the stock didn't perform and he also reported that in the past week he invested over $5 million of his own money in GE stock. So, you must applaud his commitment and belief that the stock will ultimately achieve its value.
Again the numbers are impressive..revenues were up 17%, earnings 22%. The company asserts that it is the "third straight year of organic revenue growth of
2 to 3 times GDP growth. This is an interesting change in goals. When I was researching and writing my book, the GE Annual Report's Cover headline was "GE BIG" and asserted the company would grow organically
8% per year. I challenged this assertion and said the company couldn't do it. But based on this report organic growth was 9%, so it would appear I was wrong.
But now the
goal is not 8% but a multiple of GDP... I find this interesting since GE now generates "more than half the revenues outside the United States, so why use GDP as a measure?
Of course my greatest concern is the validity of the numbers. In my GEWatcher Blog- 3 I discussed a WSJ article which stated that:" In each of the past three quarters, GE has corrected financial statements because it improperly booked income at its rail, aircraft engines, health-care, energy and water units". It is important to note that these are GE's major growth businesses and continually lauded by Immelt and his executive team as the great hopes for the future. "In the fourth quarter of 2003, for example, GE locomotive unit overstated revenues by 22.6% and profit by 16.6% according to SEC filing". (Immelt says that this has been corrected in the latest annual report.)But even if the numbers are okay... I am still concerned about the entire idea that GO BIG is the right strategic goal. "Growth or its own sake" is not a viable or intelligent strategic goal. By the way, the new GE theme is
INVEST and DELIVER and not GO BIG...I like this better, but the real issue is where and how much to invest and the ability to adapt to change.
So, lets review where GE is placing its bets...
Environmental solutions, ties with Jeff Immelt's personal theme of "ecomagination", is high on the list...and it makes sense...the company has acquired the wind turbine, solar, waste management and several others to provide a "full market basket" of energy businesses. Note that a great deal of this growth is from ACQUIRED companies and not organic growth.
Unfortunately GE missed the opportunity to acquire Westinghouse Nuclear and had to settle for a joint venture with Hitachi in the nuclear business. I think Nuclear is the biggest opportunity, but am not convinced that GE is in the strongest position to be the leader...but of course, this was always GE's problem since they selected the "second customer preferred" technology, BWR rather than the preferred one, PWR. Over the past two decades the technologies have changed, but it is interesting to note that Westinghouse and European nuclear companies have won recent Chinese contracts.
Emerging Markets..."China and India are the biggest emerging markets and are essential to GE. Immelt forecasts revenues in the region to move from $5 billion in 2006 to $13 billion in 2010. "Here we win by being a LOCAL PLAYER". In short, GE is going to continue to build plants, sales offices and even transfer R&D to these countries. I have a major concern about this strategy and will continue to follow it in future blogs.
Digital Connections... one of the major issues for Immelt is UNBC.. he states: "UNBC is a great example of a business that becomes more valuable as its market evolves". "We have refocused UNBC in global markets around fast growing cable, film and digital businesses".. In short, Immelt continues to be committed to UNBC. I also have concerns about this issue. UNBC has taken a "liberal stand on most major issues", which can have a negative impact on the GE brand, and its network ratings are poor and it is still #4. GE has placed a significant bet on the Chinese Olympics and this may be either a big win or a big loss.
It is true that CNBC is the leader, but Fox is likely to take share as they roll out their Business Network and use the extensive resources and brand strengths of the Wall Street Journal. However, only time will tell and since I have no real inside information I will just monitor and comment as time goes on.
In conclusion, it is clear that Immelt and his team are dedicated, committed to GE and its investors. They have a game plan and believe in it. The leadership continues to be deep and strong and as they point out in the annual report "we develop great leaders". But as I pointed out in my book, one of GE's "success factors" has been its ADAPTABILITY... the leaders willingness to change if and when necessary and admit they were wrong and move on. I am not sure that Immelt and his team are adaptable.
Complexity is still my greatest concern. The revenues are now $173 billion... it has exited businesses, like Plastics, Reinsurance etc, with revenues of over $50 billion and acquired businesses with revenues in the $80 billion since 2002. It is moving aggressively globally and betting on countries with major problems.. these types of change would be difficult for a mutual fund to manage, but it must be unbelievably difficult to integrate and operate businesses in this type of dynamically changing portfolio. I know GE says everything is under control, because they are skilled, but it is still a major challenge and concern.
Immelt closes his letter saying that GE's success is based not "on the sum of its parts" but on its totality and points out that it is ranked high on the Barron's and Fortune lists and fourth on innovation. But to truly understand GE and its abilities to succeed over the past 127 years, you must clearly understand the reasons... these reasons are clearly articulated in my book and I use the word: LATIN... It is because of the company's Leadership, Adaptability, Talent, Influencing and Networks that it has been successful. I will continue to evaluate each of these key factors in future blogs to determine if they are continuing, improving or declining. There is no question the company has a deep, talented bench...but it is also true that they are the target of all of the head hunters and every day I read about a GE executive moving to another company.
PLEASE ADD YOUR INSIGHTS AND PERSPECTIVES..
Bill Rothschild, author of "The Secret to GE's Success" and "Risktaker, Caretaker, Surgeon, Undertaker- the four faces of strategic leadership". Both available on Amazon and on http://www.strategyleader.com/